AFC Championship Preview: Patriots vs. Broncos

The New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos are poised to face each other in the AFC Championship Game, following two contrasting yet equally thrilling playoff victories. New England advanced by decisively overpowering the Texans with a formidable defense, while Denver triumphed in a dramatic overtime contest against the Bills. With the ultimate prize of a Super Bowl appearance at stake, these two teams are set to clash in a matchup defined by resilience, pressure, and crucial moments.

How the Patriots Got Here

New England secured its place in the championship by effectively neutralizing one of the league's hottest teams. In their matchup against Houston, the Patriots' defense was relentless, forcing multiple turnovers and maintaining control throughout the game. Sophomore quarterback Drake Maye exhibited poise and confidence, completing three touchdown passes and remaining composed even as the game intensified. Though the Patriots demonstrated their ability to score rapidly, their true strength lay in their defense, which created continuous pressure that resulted in interceptions and advantageous field positions.

The Patriots aim to replicate this successful formula. They excel when their defense generates turmoil, allowing their offense to execute with precision. If Maye can avoid turnovers and consistently distribute the ball to his receivers, New England believes it can dictate the tempo of the game once more.

How the Broncos Got Here

Denver’s journey was significantly more dramatic. The Broncos required overtime to defeat Buffalo in a contest rife with turnovers, explosive plays, and dramatic swings in momentum. Sophomore quarterback Bo Nix made crucial throws, including a late touchdown to Marvin Mims Jr., but his playoff campaign was abruptly cut short due to a fractured ankle sustained in overtime. In light of this injury, Denver will now rely on Jarrett Stidham as their quarterback.

Stidham is expected to adopt a more managerial approach to the game rather than serving as the driving force of the offense. Denver is likely to emphasize its running game and formidable defense, particularly in the familiar environment of their home field. Additionally, kicker Wil Lutz has proven to be a pivotal factor, successfully executing multiple long field goals, including the game-winner against Buffalo in overtime.

Patriots Quarterback Drake Maye vs. Broncos Defense

The outcome of this game might hinge on whether Drake Maye can effectively navigate Denver’s elite defense. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, ranks among the best in the league and is expected to shadow New England’s leading receiver for the day, likely Stefon Diggs. The Broncos also apply pressure through dynamic players such as Nik Bonitto, who possess the ability to alter the course of the game with impactful sacks and forced fumbles.

If the Patriots can protect Maye and convert third downs, they have the potential to keep Denver’s defense on the field while silencing the crowd. Conversely, if they encounter difficulties, this game could devolve into a low-scoring affair dictated by field position.

Jarrett Stidham's First Start

With backup quarterback Stidham taking the lead, Denver's offense faces an arduous challenge. The Patriots' defense thrives on capitalizing on opponents' mistakes, as evidenced in their game against the Texans. Defensive end Milton Williams and the New England pass rush will aim to disrupt Stidham from the outset.

For Denver to succeed, they need to establish a balanced offense. Rookie running back RJ Harvey and potentially veteran JK Dobbins, who has recently returned from injury, must consistently move the chains, while wide receiver Courtland Sutton needs to excel in winning contested catches. Should Denver fall behind and be compelled to rely extensively on the passing game, the Patriots' defense would gain a significant advantage.

Final Outlook

This AFC Championship represents a compelling contrast of styles. New England seeks to force turnovers and maintain control, whereas Denver aspires for balance, defensive strength, and another crucial home kick. With Bo Nix on the sidelines, the onus shifts to the Broncos' defense to perform nearly flawlessly. If they can contain Drake Maye and keep the score close, Denver could pave its way to the Super Bowl. Conversely, if the Patriots find their rhythm, they could swiftly reestablish themselves in the Super Bowl faster than anyone anticipated in the post-Tom Brady era.